Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: BTC — 2026-05-23
2026-05-23T07:45:06Z → 07:55:07Z UTC · generated 2026-07-21T02:39:01Z · artifact 2026-05-23T0745-BTC
What happened
Venues
binance, bybit, okx
Direction
predominantly SHORT liquidations (78% of events) — price rose
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| BTCUSDT | $83.4M | 1,695 | 47.5% |
| ETHUSDT | $60.9M | 1,376 | 34.7% |
| SOLUSDT | $10.7M | 833 | 6.1% |
| XRPUSDT | $6.5M | 620 | 3.7% |
| DOGEUSDT | $4.6M | 410 | 2.6% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 07:44 | 1 | $222 | ETHUSDT | binance |
| 07:45 | 60 | $174,461 | TONUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 07:46 | 1,968 | $39.6M | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 07:47 | 18 | $29,961 | TONUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 07:48 | 17 | $224,259 | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 07:49 | 245 | $2.7M | SOLUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 07:50 | 4,115 | $118.9M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 07:51 | 75 | $13.8M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 07:52 | 8 | $7,810 | ETHUSDT | binance, okx |
| 07:53 | 3 | $486 | XRPUSDT | binance |
| 07:54 | 1 | $2,109 | BTCUSDT | okx |
| 07:55 | 3 | $1,179 | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 07:56 | 1 | $641 | AVAXUSDT | binance |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| binance | $111.7M | 814 |
| bybit | $62.0M | 5,220 |
| okx | $1.7M | 447 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
No calibration record predating this cascade was found.