Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: BTC — 2026-05-28
2026-05-28T03:15:52Z → 03:20:35Z UTC · generated 2026-07-21T02:09:01Z · artifact 2026-05-28T0315-BTC
What happened
Venues
binance, bybit, okx
Direction
predominantly SHORT liquidations (81% of events) — price rose
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| BTCUSDT | $43.6M | 1,140 | 45.6% |
| ETHUSDT | $36.3M | 1,395 | 38.0% |
| SOLUSDT | $5.2M | 527 | 5.5% |
| XRPUSDT | $3.0M | 362 | 3.1% |
| SUIUSDT | $1.9M | 191 | 2.0% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 03:15 | 4 | $408 | SUIUSDT | binance |
| 03:16 | 195 | $4.7M | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 03:17 | 641 | $10.6M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 03:18 | 3,661 | $80.0M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 03:19 | 10 | $65,568 | ETHUSDT | binance, okx |
| 03:20 | 5 | $258,105 | ETHUSDT | binance, okx |
| 03:21 | 5 | $7,077 | ETHUSDT | binance, okx |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| binance | $58.0M | 561 |
| bybit | $36.4M | 3,636 |
| okx | $1.2M | 319 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
No calibration record predating this cascade was found.