Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: BTC — 2026-06-02
2026-06-02T02:02:41Z → 02:07:41Z UTC · generated 2026-07-21T01:39:02Z · artifact 2026-06-02T0202-BTC
What happened
Venues
binance, bybit, okx
Direction
predominantly SHORT liquidations (69% of events) — price rose
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| BTCUSDT | $76.7M | 1,027 | 90.7% |
| ETHUSDT | $4.5M | 224 | 5.3% |
| XRPUSDT | $1.7M | 189 | 2.0% |
| SOLUSDT | $683,255 | 130 | 0.8% |
| AVAXUSDT | $182,696 | 26 | 0.2% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 02:02 | 1 | $131 | AVAXUSDT | binance |
| 02:03 | 10 | $28,153 | ETHUSDT | binance, okx |
| 02:04 | 340 | $6.5M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 02:05 | 259 | $8.3M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 02:06 | 651 | $28.7M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 02:07 | 638 | $42.1M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 02:08 | 5 | $20,387 | ADAUSDT | binance, okx |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| binance | $62.7M | 356 |
| bybit | $20.3M | 1,303 |
| okx | $1.6M | 218 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
No calibration record predating this cascade was found.