Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: BTC — 2026-06-04
2026-06-04T00:26:18Z → 00:31:17Z UTC · generated 2026-07-21T00:39:01Z · artifact 2026-06-04T0026-BTC
What happened
Venues
binance, bybit, okx
Direction
predominantly SHORT liquidations (66% of events) — price rose
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| BTCUSDT | $39.1M | 916 | 66.5% |
| ETHUSDT | $10.0M | 264 | 17.0% |
| SOLUSDT | $5.2M | 295 | 8.8% |
| DOGEUSDT | $1.3M | 145 | 2.2% |
| BNBUSDT | $1.0M | 68 | 1.8% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 00:25 | 227 | $6.2M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 00:26 | 704 | $20.2M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 00:27 | 102 | $691,288 | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 00:28 | 46 | $333,247 | XRPUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 00:29 | 1,237 | $25.2M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 00:30 | 246 | $15.3M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 00:31 | 35 | $494,865 | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 00:32 | 1 | $359 | ETHUSDT | binance |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| binance | $41.0M | 489 |
| bybit | $16.1M | 1,393 |
| okx | $1.6M | 265 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
No calibration record predating this cascade was found.