Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: BTC — 2026-06-04
2026-06-04T02:01:01Z → 02:06:00Z UTC · generated 2026-07-21T00:09:01Z · artifact 2026-06-04T0201-BTC
What happened
Venues
binance, bybit, okx
Direction
predominantly SHORT liquidations (74% of events) — price rose
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| BTCUSDT | $62.7M | 1,625 | 42.3% |
| ETHUSDT | $49.5M | 1,641 | 33.4% |
| SOLUSDT | $11.2M | 1,292 | 7.5% |
| DOGEUSDT | $4.8M | 639 | 3.2% |
| XRPUSDT | $3.8M | 628 | 2.5% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 02:00 | 89 | $460,188 | DOGEUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 02:01 | 1,058 | $14.9M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 02:02 | 2,047 | $50.2M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 02:03 | 2,766 | $50.4M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 02:04 | 2,913 | $29.9M | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 02:05 | 170 | $2.8M | SOLUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 02:06 | 67 | $714,027 | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 02:07 | 1 | $152 | ETHUSDT | okx |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| binance | $91.8M | 1,562 |
| bybit | $50.6M | 6,544 |
| okx | $5.6M | 847 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
No calibration record predating this cascade was found.