Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: BTC — 2026-06-23
2026-06-23T06:17:33Z → 06:22:33Z UTC · generated 2026-07-20T23:09:01Z · artifact 2026-06-23T0617-BTC
What happened
Venues
binance, bitmex, bybit, kraken_fut, okx
Direction
mixed: 1367 long / 1512 short liquidations
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| BTCUSDT | $16.0M | 492 | 29.3% |
| ETHUSDT | $13.4M | 360 | 24.5% |
| ZECUSDT | $7.2M | 156 | 13.1% |
| TAOUSDT | $5.3M | 84 | 9.7% |
| SOLUSDT | $3.0M | 230 | 5.5% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 06:17 | 30 | $95,115 | AAVEUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 06:18 | 406 | $4.8M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, kraken_fut, okx |
| 06:19 | 7 | $11,872 | BNBUSDT | binance |
| 06:20 | 829 | $18.3M | ETHUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, okx |
| 06:21 | 1,527 | $30.1M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, kraken_fut, okx |
| 06:22 | 129 | $6.3M | ZECUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 06:23 | 71 | $1.1M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, okx |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| binance | $31.4M | 873 |
| bybit | $12.0M | 1,517 |
| okx | $11.3M | 457 |
| bitmex | $86,846 | 25 |
| kraken_fut | $1,717 | 7 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
No calibration record predating this cascade was found.