Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: BTC — 2026-06-24
2026-06-24T16:46:45Z → 16:56:45Z UTC · generated 2026-07-20T22:39:02Z · artifact 2026-06-24T1646-BTC
What happened
Venues
binance, bitmex, bybit, kraken_fut, okx
Direction
predominantly SHORT liquidations (65% of events) — price rose
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| BTCUSDT | $50.9M | 1,020 | 50.5% |
| ETHUSDT | $25.5M | 821 | 25.3% |
| SOLUSDT | $3.7M | 381 | 3.7% |
| ZECUSDT | $3.3M | 88 | 3.2% |
| XRPUSDT | $2.7M | 242 | 2.7% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 16:45 | 3 | $1,345 | SOLUSDT | bybit, okx |
| 16:46 | 424 | $26.1M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, okx |
| 16:47 | 823 | $12.7M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, okx |
| 16:48 | 148 | $1.6M | ETHUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, okx |
| 16:49 | 13 | $26,062 | ZECUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 16:50 | 15 | $95,098 | HYPEUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 16:51 | 3,511 | $67.2M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, kraken_fut, okx |
| 16:52 | 89 | $217,264 | ETHUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, kraken_fut, okx |
| 16:53 | 9 | $40,134 | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 16:54 | 11 | $30,371 | BTCUSDT | binance, okx |
| 16:55 | 10 | $14,978 | ZECUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 16:56 | 59 | $524,113 | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 16:57 | 59 | $458,576 | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| binance | $64.3M | 1,136 |
| bybit | $27.3M | 3,098 |
| okx | $8.5M | 552 |
| bitmex | $552,796 | 27 |
| kraken_fut | $119,821 | 45 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
No calibration record predating this cascade was found.