Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: ZEC — 2026-07-14
2026-07-14T13:17:24Z → 13:22:24Z UTC · generated 2026-07-20T19:09:01Z · artifact 2026-07-14T1317-ZEC
What happened
Venues
binance, bitmex, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
Direction
predominantly SHORT liquidations (75% of events) — price rose
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| ZECUSDT | $28.4M | 124 | 52.7% |
| ETHUSDT | $17.5M | 584 | 32.5% |
| BTCUSDT | $2.8M | 150 | 5.3% |
| TAOUSDT | $2.2M | 4 | 4.2% |
| SOLUSDT | $1.2M | 135 | 2.3% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 13:16 | 8 | $37,501 | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit |
| 13:17 | 15 | $11,456 | WLDUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 13:18 | 74 | $1.9M | ZECUSDT | binance, bybit, hyperliquid, okx |
| 13:19 | 12 | $127,801 | SUIUSDT | binance, bybit |
| 13:20 | 428 | $15.9M | ZECUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, hyperliquid, okx |
| 13:21 | 611 | $15.6M | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 13:22 | 334 | $20.4M | ZECUSDT | binance, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 13:23 | 128 | $3.0M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, hyperliquid, okx |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| okx | $36.0M | 570 |
| binance | $14.3M | 331 |
| bybit | $3.1M | 340 |
| hyperliquid | $362,222 | 184 |
| kraken_fut | $6,970 | 6 |
| bitmex | $1,868 | 1 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
Levels snapshot published at 2026-07-14T13:13:08Z — 4 minutes before the cascade start — anchor price $523.95. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.
| # | Leverage | Side | Predicted level | Status | Reached at (UTC) |
|---|
| #1 | 25× | short | $524.9979 | REACHED | 13:18:32 |
| #2 | 50× | short | $524.9979 | REACHED | 13:18:32 |
| #3 | 75× | short | $524.9979 | REACHED | 13:18:32 |
| #4 | 100× | short | $524.9979 | REACHED | 13:18:32 |
| — | 50× | short | $510.3273 | MISSED | — |
| — | 25× | short | $520.8063 | MISSED | — |
| — | 50× | long | $499.8483 | MISSED | — |
| — | 25× | long | $489.3693 | MISSED | — |
| — | 75× | short | $506.1357 | MISSED | — |
| — | 75× | long | $504.0399 | MISSED | — |
| — | 100× | short | $504.0399 | MISSED | — |
| — | 100× | long | $504.0399 | MISSED | — |
| — | 10× | short | $550.1475 | MISSED | — |
| — | 10× | long | $460.0281 | MISSED | — |
Event-level record for this one cascade: 4 of 14 published levels were reached — reach rate 28.6% · n=14 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 11.7%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($525.17–$541.71) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight — never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
As of 2026-07-14 12:58 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=13 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate — only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.