Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: ZEC — 2026-07-14
2026-07-14T22:33:19Z → 22:38:16Z UTC · generated 2026-07-20T18:39:02Z · artifact 2026-07-14T2233-ZEC
What happened
Venues
binance, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
Direction
mixed: 193 long / 300 short liquidations
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| ZECUSDT | $52.6M | 118 | 89.8% |
| ETHUSDT | $4.3M | 199 | 7.3% |
| BTCUSDT | $864,381 | 55 | 1.5% |
| SOLUSDT | $286,887 | 37 | 0.5% |
| TAOUSDT | $265,034 | 1 | 0.5% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 22:32 | 27 | $920,616 | ZECUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 22:33 | 305 | $18.4M | ZECUSDT | binance, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 22:34 | 208 | $40.4M | ZECUSDT | binance, bybit, hyperliquid, okx |
| 22:35 | 2 | $91 | ETHUSDT | binance |
| 22:37 | 2 | $10,114 | 1000PEPEUSDT | binance |
| 22:38 | 3 | $45 | ZECUSDT | binance, okx |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| okx | $53.1M | 186 |
| binance | $3.8M | 102 |
| bybit | $1.7M | 180 |
| hyperliquid | $110,964 | 23 |
| kraken_fut | $3,252 | 2 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
Levels snapshot published at 2026-07-14T22:33:10Z — 0 minutes before the cascade start — anchor price $553.84. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.
| # | Leverage | Side | Predicted level | Status | Reached at (UTC) |
|---|
| #1 | 25× | short | $554.9477 | REACHED | 22:32:26 |
| #2 | 50× | short | $554.9477 | REACHED | 22:32:26 |
| #3 | 75× | short | $554.9477 | REACHED | 22:32:26 |
| #4 | 100× | short | $554.9477 | REACHED | 22:32:26 |
| #5 | 10× | short | $563.8091 | REACHED | 22:33:27 |
| — | 50× | short | $523.9326 | MISSED | — |
| — | 25× | short | $532.7941 | MISSED | — |
| — | 75× | short | $519.5019 | MISSED | — |
| — | 50× | long | $512.8558 | MISSED | — |
| — | 25× | long | $501.7790 | MISSED | — |
| — | 75× | long | $517.2866 | MISSED | — |
| — | 100× | short | $517.2866 | MISSED | — |
| — | 100× | long | $517.2866 | MISSED | — |
| — | 10× | long | $470.7640 | MISSED | — |
Event-level record for this one cascade: 5 of 14 published levels were reached — reach rate 35.7% · n=14 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 16.3%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($553.92–$571.23) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight — never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
As of 2026-07-14 22:05 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=13 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate — only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.