Cascade Autopsy: ETH — 2026-07-15

2026-07-15T12:47:52Z → 13:03:11Z UTC · generated 2026-07-20T18:09:01Z · artifact 2026-07-15T1247-ETH

What happened

Total liquidated

$147.4M

Raw tape events

3,613

Duration

15m 19s

Venues

binance, bitmex, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

ETHUSDT

Direction

predominantly SHORT liquidations (71% of events) — price rose

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
ETHUSDT	$59.3M	1,731	40.2%
ZECUSDT	$56.3M	309	38.2%
BTCUSDT	$15.2M	656	10.3%
XAUUSDT	$10.0M	13	6.8%
SOLUSDT	$1.7M	116	1.2%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
12:47	4	$180	ETHUSDT	binance, okx
12:48	231	$5.3M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, kraken_fut, okx
12:49	423	$8.1M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, hyperliquid, okx
12:50	122	$1.5M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, kraken_fut, okx
12:51	674	$30.3M	ZECUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, kraken_fut, okx
12:52	253	$2.6M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
12:53	503	$28.9M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, hyperliquid, okx
12:54	72	$814,070	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, okx
12:55	55	$1.5M	ZECUSDT	binance, bybit, okx
12:56	190	$22.7M	ZECUSDT	binance, bybit, okx
12:57	119	$7.7M	ZECUSDT	binance, bybit, okx
12:58	25	$8.0M	XAUUSDT	binance, bybit, okx
12:59	18	$728,379	TAOUSDT	binance, bybit, okx
13:00	160	$2.4M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, kraken_fut, okx
13:01	39	$813,844	ZECUSDT	binance, bybit, hyperliquid, okx
13:02	695	$24.4M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
13:03	321	$5.2M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
13:04	3	$38,137	ETHUSDT	binance

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
okx	$80.7M	1,520
binance	$54.3M	835
bybit	$11.6M	1,187
bitmex	$572,266	9
hyperliquid	$202,956	55
kraken_fut	$1,379	7

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-07-15T12:43:05Z — 4 minutes before the cascade start — anchor price $1,895.45. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	75×	short	$1,891.6591	REACHED	12:47:52
#2	75×	short	$1,899.2409	REACHED	12:47:52
#3	100×	short	$1,899.2409	REACHED	12:47:52
#4	50×	short	$1,906.8227	REACHED	12:48:09
#5	25×	short	$1,944.7317	REACHED	12:53:22
—	50×	long	$1,846.1683	MISSED	—
—	75×	long	$1,861.3319	MISSED	—
—	100×	short	$1,884.0773	MISSED	—
—	100×	long	$1,868.9137	MISSED	—
—	25×	long	$1,808.2593	MISSED	—
—	5×	short	$2,240.4219	MISSED	—
—	5×	long	$1,512.5691	MISSED	—

Event-level record for this one cascade: 5 of 12 published levels were reached — reach rate 41.7% · n=12 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 19.3%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($1,893.56–$1,953.35) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight — never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

As of 2026-07-15 12:15 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=15 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate — only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.