Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: BTC — 2026-07-31
2026-07-31T14:06:14Z → 14:11:09Z UTC · generated 2026-07-31T14:39:01Z · artifact 2026-07-31T1406-BTC
What happened
Venues
binance, bitmex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
Direction
predominantly LONG liquidations (80% of events) — price fell
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| BTCUSDT | $35.2M | 1,181 | 56.5% |
| ETHUSDT | $18.1M | 1,369 | 29.1% |
| SOLUSDT | $2.2M | 181 | 3.5% |
| XRPUSDT | $1.4M | 114 | 2.3% |
| DOGEUSDT | $1.3M | 207 | 2.1% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 14:05 | 170 | $2.8M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 14:06 | 2,171 | $39.9M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 14:07 | 531 | $10.7M | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 14:08 | 102 | $1.1M | SOXLUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx |
| 14:09 | 290 | $4.4M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 14:10 | 787 | $6.8M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx |
| 14:11 | 30 | $200,274 | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, okx |
| 14:12 | 17 | $20,250 | SNDKUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| binance | $30.5M | 522 |
| gateio | $11.6M | 543 |
| okx | $8.2M | 995 |
| bybit | $7.6M | 716 |
| hyperliquid | $3.5M | 952 |
| kraken_fut | $997,427 | 92 |
| bitmex | $16,828 | 2 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
Levels snapshot published at 2026-07-31T14:03:04Z — 3 minutes before the cascade start — anchor price $63,191.40. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.
| # | Leverage | Side | Predicted level | Status | Reached at (UTC) |
|---|
| #1 | 75× | long | $63,065.0172 | REACHED | 14:05:14 |
| #2 | 100× | long | $63,065.0172 | REACHED | 14:05:14 |
| #3 | 50× | long | $63,065.0172 | REACHED | 14:05:14 |
| #4 | 25× | long | $62,053.9548 | REACHED | 14:06:55 |
| #5 | 50× | long | $63,317.7828 | REACHED | 14:12:25 |
| — | 75× | long | $63,823.3140 | MISSED | — |
| — | 100× | long | $64,076.0796 | MISSED | — |
| — | 75× | short | $64,834.3764 | MISSED | — |
| — | 100× | short | $64,834.3764 | MISSED | — |
| — | 50× | short | $65,339.9076 | MISSED | — |
| — | 25× | short | $66,603.7356 | MISSED | — |
| — | 5× | long | $51,943.3308 | MISSED | — |
| — | 5× | short | $76,967.1252 | MISSED | — |
Event-level record for this one cascade: 5 of 13 published levels were reached — reach rate 38.5% · n=13 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 17.7%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($62,123.40–$63,174.00) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight — never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
Walk-forward OOS precision@N
84.1%
Wilson 95% lower bound
60.1%
Record as of
2026-07-31 09:06 UTC
What this means: in walk-forward out-of-sample evaluation, the model's top-N published zones matched real liquidation clusters in 84.1% of evaluation windows (n=16 day-clusters, Wilson 95% lower bound 60.1%, basis out_of_sample_walk_forward, model v1.cal-20260731). This is a descriptive historical record of zone accuracy — not a forecast of whether or when a cascade starts.