Hunter Killer
Historical · not a forecast · since 2026-05-20

The liquidation contagion map

When a major coin prints a top-decile liquidation cluster, the shock rarely stays put. This map is the measured anatomy of how those cascades have spread: every directed edge is source → responder, built from unique shock events in an append-only journal, carrying its sample size and a day-clustered 95% confidence interval. Descriptive history, bound to the corpus since 2026-05-20 — never a prediction, never a trade instruction.

13 cascade edges serving 430 unique shock events corpus since 2026-05-20 shock floors: BTC ≥$4.0M · ETH ≥$3.0M liquidated in an hour

The edge map — tap any edge for its full stats

BTC → SUI: shock-beta 1.39 (95% CI 1.22 to 1.55), n=192 shocks across 67 days; same-bar -0.21%, next-bar +0.10%BTC → DOGE: shock-beta 1.14 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.25), n=192 shocks across 67 days; same-bar -0.19%, next-bar +0.08%BTC → AVAX: shock-beta 1.25 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.38), n=192 shocks across 67 days; same-bar -0.17%, next-bar +0.07%BTC → SOL: shock-beta 1.25 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.34), n=192 shocks across 67 days; same-bar -0.17%, next-bar +0.12%BTC → ADA: shock-beta 1.29 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.49), n=192 shocks across 67 days; same-bar -0.16%, next-bar -0.01%BTC → LINK: shock-beta 1.28 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.37), n=192 shocks across 67 days; same-bar -0.15%, next-bar +0.07%BTC → ETH: shock-beta 1.21 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.32), n=192 shocks across 67 days; same-bar -0.14%, next-bar +0.04%BTC → BNB: shock-beta 0.83 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.92), n=192 shocks across 67 days; same-bar -0.12%, next-bar +0.04%ETH → OP: shock-beta 0.97 (95% CI 0.70 to 1.25), n=72 shocks across 26 days; same-bar -0.12%, next-bar +0.07%ETH → SOL: shock-beta 0.99 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.05), n=238 shocks across 73 days; same-bar -0.11%, next-bar +0.11%BTC → XRP: shock-beta 1.06 (95% CI 0.96 to 1.16), n=192 shocks across 67 days; same-bar -0.07%, next-bar +0.06%ETH → LINK: shock-beta 1.03 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.08), n=238 shocks across 73 days; same-bar -0.07%, next-bar +0.10%ETH → ARB: shock-beta 0.83 (95% CI 0.60 to 1.10), n=69 shocks across 25 days; same-bar +0.04%, next-bar +0.09%BTCETHSUIDOGEAVAXSOLADALINKETHBNBOPXRPARB
Tap or hover an edge — every stat carries its n and its 95% CI.

Edge width ∝ |shock-beta| · arrow points at the responder · blue nodes are shock sources · ETH appears twice by design — shock source (top) and responder (grid)

Every edge, with its sample size

EdgeShock-beta95% CI Same-barNext-barn (shocks)Days
BTC → SUI1.39[1.22, 1.55]-0.21%+0.10%19267
BTC → ADA1.29[1.11, 1.49]-0.16%-0.01%19267
BTC → LINK1.28[1.18, 1.37]-0.15%+0.07%19267
BTC → AVAX1.25[1.13, 1.38]-0.17%+0.07%19267
BTC → SOL1.25[1.15, 1.34]-0.17%+0.12%19267
BTC → ETH1.21[1.12, 1.32]-0.14%+0.04%19267
BTC → DOGE1.14[1.04, 1.25]-0.19%+0.08%19267
BTC → XRP1.06[0.96, 1.16]-0.07%+0.06%19267
ETH → LINK1.03[0.97, 1.08]-0.07%+0.10%23873
ETH → SOL0.99[0.92, 1.05]-0.11%+0.11%23873
ETH → OP0.97[0.70, 1.25]-0.12%+0.07%7226
ETH → ARB0.83[0.60, 1.10]+0.04%+0.09%6925
BTC → BNB0.83[0.75, 0.92]-0.12%+0.04%19267

Shock-beta: the responder’s mean move per 1% of source shock move, on shock bars. Same-bar / next-bar: the responder’s mean move in the shock hour and the following hour. CI: edge_dsl.cluster_bootstrap_ci95 (utc-day clusters). A pair below the serve floor (n≥10 shocks & ≥7 UTC day-clusters) is never served a bare beta.

The honesty block — verbatim from the measurement artifact

Basis: historical-not-forecast · corpus since 2026-05-20 · 430 unique shock events (one immutable journal row per source×shock-hour, deduped, no look-ahead).
Disclaimer, verbatim: “Long-horizon liquidation-cascade contagion: for each source→responder pair, on hours where the source printed a large liquidation cluster (>= its USD floor) AND moved >= 0.4%, the responder's mean same-bar / next-bar move and the shock-beta (mean response/source elasticity) with a day-clustered 95% CI. DESCRIPTIVE — how assets HAVE co-moved on shock bars, bound to the corpus since 2026-05-20; not a forecast, not financial advice. A pair below n>=10 & day-clusters>=7 shows 'watching' with no beta.”
Not a signal. Nothing on this page has cleared the promotion kill-gate (net_usd>0 ∧ ci95_low>0) that guards every Hunter Killer strategy claim — this is market structure, published because measured honesty is the product. It is not a forecast and not financial advice.
Want the machine-readable feed? The same artifact serves as JSON at /market/contagion/longrun for Pro subscribers, with the trailing-window sibling at /market/contagion.

The live cascade tape: /liq · the measured accuracy record: /accuracy · metric definitions: /methodology · the full scored ledger: /proof.

Measurement stamp — artifact generated 2026-08-16T22:09:04Z · basis historical-not-forecast · since 2026-05-20