Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: XAU — 2026-07-06
2026-07-06T05:03:09Z → 05:08:08Z UTC · generated 2026-07-20T21:39:01Z · artifact 2026-07-06T0503-XAU
What happened
Venues
binance, bybit, okx
Direction
predominantly LONG liquidations (75% of events) — price fell
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| XAUUSDT | $286.8M | 33 | 100.0% |
| DOGEUSDT | $30,086 | 8 | 0.0% |
| BTCUSDT | $10,676 | 2 | 0.0% |
| SOLUSDT | $3,883 | 2 | 0.0% |
| XRPUSDT | $3,273 | 1 | 0.0% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 05:03 | 35 | $258.7M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 05:04 | 16 | $36,120 | DOGEUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 05:05 | 19 | $28.1M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 05:06 | 2 | $1,323 | XAUUSDT | bybit |
| 05:07 | 4 | $19,154 | DOGEUSDT | binance, okx |
| 05:08 | 31 | $184,548 | 1000PEPEUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 05:09 | 14 | $100,540 | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| okx | $286.7M | 19 |
| binance | $118,064 | 32 |
| bybit | $27,384 | 16 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
As of 2026-07-06 04:46 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=None day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate — only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.