Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: XAU — 2026-07-06
2026-07-06T11:56:14Z → 12:06:35Z UTC · generated 2026-07-20T21:39:01Z · artifact 2026-07-06T1156-XAU
What happened
Venues
binance, bitmex, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
Direction
mixed: 448 long / 436 short liquidations
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| XAUUSDT | $196.9M | 12 | 81.8% |
| BTCUSDT | $14.1M | 692 | 5.9% |
| ZECUSDT | $9.8M | 66 | 4.1% |
| ETHUSDT | $8.4M | 319 | 3.5% |
| SOLUSDT | $3.6M | 153 | 1.5% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 11:55 | 1 | $151 | ADAUSDT | binance |
| 11:56 | 3 | $1,226 | SNDKUSDT | okx |
| 11:57 | 68 | $474,208 | BTCUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, okx |
| 11:58 | 52 | $556,151 | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 11:59 | 275 | $4.9M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, okx |
| 12:00 | 486 | $173.5M | XAUUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 12:01 | 38 | $883,780 | BTCUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, kraken_fut, okx |
| 12:02 | 349 | $6.8M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, okx |
| 12:03 | 806 | $48.0M | XAUUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, kraken_fut, okx |
| 12:04 | 131 | $1.8M | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 12:05 | 192 | $3.5M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, hyperliquid, okx |
| 12:06 | 24 | $355,804 | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 12:07 | 8 | $61,464 | ETHUSDT | binance, okx |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| okx | $209.9M | 409 |
| binance | $22.6M | 815 |
| bybit | $8.1M | 1,172 |
| bitmex | $78,187 | 11 |
| hyperliquid | $40,331 | 7 |
| kraken_fut | $36,231 | 10 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
As of 2026-07-06 11:54 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=None day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate — only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.