Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: XAU — 2026-07-06
2026-07-06T21:06:14Z → 21:11:12Z UTC · generated 2026-07-20T21:09:01Z · artifact 2026-07-06T2106-XAU
What happened
Venues
binance, bitmex, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
Direction
predominantly LONG liquidations (71% of events) — price fell
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| XAUUSDT | $117.4M | 34 | 57.5% |
| ETHUSDT | $34.6M | 506 | 17.0% |
| BTCUSDT | $32.2M | 831 | 15.8% |
| ZECUSDT | $10.1M | 56 | 4.9% |
| SOLUSDT | $3.6M | 275 | 1.8% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 21:06 | 1 | $6 | SOLUSDT | binance |
| 21:07 | 7 | $71,175 | SOLUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 21:08 | 18 | $88,415 | SOLUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 21:09 | 1,472 | $168.0M | XAUUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 21:10 | 813 | $35.8M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 21:11 | 5 | $63,137 | SOLUSDT | binance, okx |
| 21:12 | 2 | $18,354 | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| okx | $129.1M | 221 |
| binance | $41.4M | 463 |
| bybit | $28.2M | 1,613 |
| bitmex | $5.4M | 9 |
| hyperliquid | $5,659 | 2 |
| kraken_fut | $1,637 | 6 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
As of 2026-07-06 20:06 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=None day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate — only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.