Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: XAU — 2026-07-07
2026-07-07T13:43:09Z → 13:47:25Z UTC · generated 2026-07-20T21:09:01Z · artifact 2026-07-07T1343-XAU
What happened
Venues
binance, bitmex, bybit, okx
Direction
mixed: 49 long / 78 short liquidations
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| XAUUSDT | $173.7M | 3 | 99.3% |
| BTCUSDT | $643,541 | 25 | 0.4% |
| ETHUSDT | $375,427 | 35 | 0.2% |
| ZECUSDT | $55,267 | 3 | 0.0% |
| HYPEUSDT | $32,558 | 5 | 0.0% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 13:42 | 2 | $17,159 | SOXLUSDT | binance, okx |
| 13:43 | 4 | $173.7M | XAUUSDT | binance, okx |
| 13:44 | 11 | $28,293 | SOXLUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 13:45 | 25 | $261,694 | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 13:46 | 68 | $798,774 | BTCUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, okx |
| 13:47 | 19 | $77,570 | ZECUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, okx |
| 13:48 | 18 | $733,122 | ZECUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| okx | $173.8M | 34 |
| binance | $1.0M | 72 |
| bybit | $40,611 | 19 |
| bitmex | $1,136 | 2 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
As of 2026-07-07 13:21 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=None day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate — only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.