Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: XAU — 2026-07-07
2026-07-07T18:48:58Z → 18:53:42Z UTC · generated 2026-07-20T20:39:01Z · artifact 2026-07-07T1848-XAU
What happened
Venues
binance, bitmex, bybit, okx
Direction
predominantly LONG liquidations (71% of events) — price fell
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| XAUUSDT | $173.7M | 21 | 97.4% |
| ETHUSDT | $1.7M | 82 | 0.9% |
| BTCUSDT | $1.4M | 53 | 0.8% |
| HYPEUSDT | $681,188 | 53 | 0.4% |
| SOLUSDT | $233,084 | 61 | 0.1% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 18:48 | 1 | $1,822 | SUIUSDT | binance |
| 18:49 | 140 | $152.9M | XAUUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, okx |
| 18:50 | 37 | $1.2M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 18:51 | 164 | $20.3M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 18:52 | 97 | $1.3M | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 18:53 | 21 | $2.7M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 18:54 | 5 | $82,512 | XAUUSDT | binance, okx |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| okx | $175.6M | 126 |
| binance | $2.4M | 198 |
| bybit | $287,458 | 135 |
| bitmex | $111,500 | 1 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
As of 2026-07-07 18:25 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=None day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate — only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.