Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: XAU — 2026-07-07
2026-07-07T18:59:06Z → 19:09:20Z UTC · generated 2026-07-20T20:39:01Z · artifact 2026-07-07T1859-XAU
What happened
Venues
binance, bitmex, bybit, kraken_fut, okx
Direction
predominantly LONG liquidations (73% of events) — price fell
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| XAUUSDT | $163.2M | 63 | 97.3% |
| AAVEUSDT | $1.4M | 7 | 0.8% |
| ZECUSDT | $998,309 | 32 | 0.6% |
| ETHUSDT | $652,666 | 68 | 0.4% |
| SOLUSDT | $605,494 | 27 | 0.4% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 18:58 | 35 | $158,372 | WLDUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 18:59 | 57 | $137,143 | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 19:00 | 193 | $4.0M | XAUUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, kraken_fut, okx |
| 19:01 | 40 | $141.9M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 19:02 | 16 | $41,195 | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 19:03 | 6 | $15,565 | SUIUSDT | binance, okx |
| 19:04 | 3 | $784 | SNDKUSDT | binance, bybit |
| 19:05 | 3 | $1,493 | ZECUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 19:06 | 12 | $447,494 | ZECUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 19:07 | 141 | $21.0M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 19:08 | 27 | $200,831 | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 19:09 | 26 | $115,019 | SOLUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 19:10 | 21 | $159,681 | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| okx | $165.8M | 105 |
| binance | $1.8M | 286 |
| bybit | $193,651 | 100 |
| bitmex | $3,000 | 1 |
| kraken_fut | $2,831 | 2 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
As of 2026-07-07 18:25 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=None day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate — only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.