Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: XAU — 2026-07-09
2026-07-09T06:32:25Z → 06:37:22Z UTC · generated 2026-07-20T20:09:01Z · artifact 2026-07-09T0632-XAU
What happened
Venues
binance, bybit, okx
Direction
predominantly SHORT liquidations (79% of events) — price rose
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| XAUUSDT | $217.4M | 15 | 100.0% |
| AVAXUSDT | $4,069 | 5 | 0.0% |
| ADAUSDT | $3,657 | 3 | 0.0% |
| ZECUSDT | $2,570 | 2 | 0.0% |
| SNDKUSDT | $1,461 | 4 | 0.0% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 06:31 | 1 | $5,195 | HYPEUSDT | binance |
| 06:32 | 8 | $10.7M | XAUUSDT | binance, okx |
| 06:33 | 12 | $206.7M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 06:34 | 2 | $1,828 | ADAUSDT | binance |
| 06:35 | 5 | $4,949 | ADAUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 06:36 | 7 | $3,356 | AVAXUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 06:37 | 14 | $18,324 | AVAXUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 06:38 | 7 | $21,590 | AVAXUSDT | binance, bybit |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| okx | $217.4M | 9 |
| binance | $30,290 | 17 |
| bybit | $5,061 | 7 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
As of 2026-07-09 06:31 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=None day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate — only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.