Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: XAU — 2026-07-10
2026-07-10T13:24:40Z → 13:29:40Z UTC · generated 2026-07-20T19:39:01Z · artifact 2026-07-10T1324-XAU
What happened
Venues
binance, bybit, okx
Direction
predominantly LONG liquidations (77% of events) — price fell
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| XAUUSDT | $277.7M | 26 | 100.0% |
| BTCUSDT | $10,864 | 8 | 0.0% |
| SNDKUSDT | $8,964 | 4 | 0.0% |
| PAXGUSDT | $2,045 | 1 | 0.0% |
| ZECUSDT | $2,006 | 2 | 0.0% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 13:23 | 1 | $18,264 | SOXLUSDT | binance |
| 13:24 | 3 | $3,674 | PAXGUSDT | binance |
| 13:25 | 6 | $6,833 | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 13:26 | 1 | $101 | WLDUSDT | bybit |
| 13:27 | 20 | $276.0M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 13:28 | 7 | $43,571 | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 13:29 | 20 | $2.0M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 13:30 | 14 | $18,817 | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| okx | $277.7M | 13 |
| binance | $54,573 | 25 |
| bybit | $4,581 | 9 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
As of 2026-07-10 12:52 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=None day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate — only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.