Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: XAU — 2026-07-14
2026-07-14T12:25:43Z → 12:35:39Z UTC · generated 2026-07-20T19:09:01Z · artifact 2026-07-14T1225-XAU
What happened
Venues
binance, bitmex, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
Direction
predominantly SHORT liquidations (68% of events) — price rose
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| XAUUSDT | $268.0M | 92 | 77.7% |
| ZECUSDT | $47.4M | 136 | 13.7% |
| ETHUSDT | $13.1M | 654 | 3.8% |
| BTCUSDT | $12.4M | 734 | 3.6% |
| HYPEUSDT | $657,775 | 29 | 0.2% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 12:24 | 131 | $1.8M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, hyperliquid, okx |
| 12:25 | 130 | $618,081 | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, hyperliquid, okx |
| 12:26 | 5 | $15,244 | NEARUSDT | binance |
| 12:27 | 2 | $552 | AAVEUSDT | binance |
| 12:28 | 5 | $28,529 | ETHUSDT | binance, okx |
| 12:29 | 3 | $14,372 | ETHUSDT | binance |
| 12:30 | 1,761 | $255.3M | XAUUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 12:31 | 106 | $3.4M | ZECUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 12:32 | 311 | $12.2M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 12:33 | 27 | $72.6M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 12:34 | 18 | $29,963 | SOLUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 12:35 | 78 | $1.4M | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, hyperliquid, okx |
| 12:36 | 76 | $258,204 | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| okx | $320.3M | 890 |
| binance | $17.5M | 447 |
| bybit | $4.1M | 586 |
| hyperliquid | $2.9M | 361 |
| bitmex | $102,047 | 5 |
| kraken_fut | $20,298 | 15 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
As of 2026-07-14 11:58 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=13 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate — only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.