Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: XAU — 2026-07-14
2026-07-14T15:42:12Z → 15:47:06Z UTC · generated 2026-07-20T18:39:02Z · artifact 2026-07-14T1542-XAU
What happened
Venues
binance, bybit, okx
Direction
mixed: 16 long / 19 short liquidations
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| XAUUSDT | $163.4M | 7 | 99.8% |
| ZECUSDT | $326,583 | 9 | 0.2% |
| BTCUSDT | $63,389 | 3 | 0.0% |
| ETHUSDT | $4,887 | 3 | 0.0% |
| SKHYUSDT | $1,320 | 4 | 0.0% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 15:41 | 5 | $7,520 | BTCUSDT | binance |
| 15:42 | 16 | $163.4M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 15:44 | 6 | $82,063 | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 15:45 | 8 | $206,945 | ZECUSDT | binance, okx |
| 15:46 | 4 | $101,815 | ZECUSDT | binance, okx |
| 15:47 | 1 | $341 | SNXXUSDT | binance |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| okx | $163.7M | 11 |
| binance | $101,626 | 22 |
| bybit | $9,398 | 2 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
As of 2026-07-14 15:00 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=14 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate — only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.