Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: XAU — 2026-07-16
2026-07-16T12:35:55Z → 12:45:47Z UTC · generated 2026-07-20T18:09:01Z · artifact 2026-07-16T1235-XAU
What happened
Venues
binance, bitmex, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
Direction
predominantly LONG liquidations (77% of events) — price fell
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| XAUUSDT | $165.7M | 88 | 93.5% |
| ETHUSDT | $4.9M | 362 | 2.8% |
| BTCUSDT | $2.9M | 137 | 1.6% |
| HYPEUSDT | $2.3M | 56 | 1.3% |
| SOLUSDT | $466,282 | 67 | 0.3% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 12:35 | 3 | $170,681 | ZECUSDT | binance, okx |
| 12:36 | 19 | $144,046 | SNDKUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 12:37 | 317 | $6.6M | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 12:38 | 22 | $93,480 | XRPUSDT | binance, bybit, hyperliquid, okx |
| 12:39 | 4 | $4,364 | BTCUSDT | binance |
| 12:40 | 129 | $82.0M | XAUUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, okx |
| 12:41 | 243 | $30.7M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 12:42 | 24 | $1.0M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 12:43 | 19 | $24.2M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 12:44 | 44 | $15.8M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 12:45 | 75 | $16.6M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 12:46 | 26 | $148,993 | DOGEUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| okx | $170.1M | 430 |
| binance | $5.9M | 277 |
| bybit | $1.0M | 171 |
| hyperliquid | $52,126 | 12 |
| kraken_fut | $4,166 | 5 |
| bitmex | $128 | 1 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
As of 2026-07-16 12:22 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=15 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate — only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.