Descriptive record — not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: XAU — 2026-07-16
2026-07-16T19:34:03Z → 19:38:47Z UTC · generated 2026-07-20T17:39:02Z · artifact 2026-07-16T1934-XAU
What happened
Venues
binance, bybit, okx
Direction
predominantly LONG liquidations (69% of events) — price fell
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| XAUUSDT | $330.1M | 60 | 100.0% |
| XAUTUSDT | $8,012 | 4 | 0.0% |
| PAXGUSDT | $2,457 | 6 | 0.0% |
| SOLUSDT | $272 | 1 | 0.0% |
| XRPUSDT | $144 | 1 | 0.0% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 19:33 | 2 | $1.5M | XAUUSDT | binance, okx |
| 19:34 | 14 | $38.7M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 19:35 | 50 | $288.1M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 19:36 | 4 | $256 | SOXLUSDT | binance, okx |
| 19:37 | 2 | $1,300 | XAUUSDT | binance |
| 19:38 | 11 | $3.4M | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| okx | $330.0M | 29 |
| binance | $106,553 | 35 |
| bybit | $67,799 | 17 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
No pre-cascade map snapshot exists for this symbol (level capture not active for it at that time, or outside the retention window). We do not reconstruct or backfill a before-map — that would be look-ahead.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
As of 2026-07-16 19:26 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=15 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate — only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.