Updated 2026-07-25
Reach rate measures how often price actually arrives at a level the model published, within a stated time horizon. Where precision@N asks whether the levels you flagged were right, reach rate asks the complementary question: of the levels flagged, how many did price actually get to?
The horizon is not a detail, it is the whole measurement. Any level is reached eventually if you wait long enough, so a reach rate quoted without its window is not a claim about anything. The same applies to distance: levels close to price are trivially easier to reach than distant ones, so an honest report separates near from far rather than blending them into one flattering average. Reach rate is one of the measurements we publish for our own liquidation levels, with sample sizes and interval bounds, on the proof page.